It is the Best of Times. It is the Worst of Times.
Like Charles Dickens’ A Tale of Two Cities, the U.S. M&A market under Trump’s second administration is both dynamic and daunting. As the CEO of an international M&A services firm, I am watching firsthand as the deal-making landscape shifts in ways that are new, promising and precarious.
On one hand, lower corporate taxes, deregulation, and a business-friendly White House have created a favourable environment for deal-making. On the other, market volatility, trade wars, and an evolving geopolitical strategy have added new layers of complexity and risk to M&A.
At the core of these shifts is a fundamental change in America’s economic philosophy that I think could be fascinating to understand for corporations everywhere — that is that the US Government strategy is no longer rooted in neoliberal globalization, but instead in mercantilist hegemony, a mindset that prioritizes national power, economic dominance, and control over global trade flows. This shift will fundamentally reshape the US Government’s approach to governing and we are starting to see just the beginnings of how this will impact M&A strategy in the U.S. forcing companies to rethink domestic consolidation, foreign expansion, and cross-border transactions.
The Mercantilist-Hegemonic Mindset: A New Playbook for M&A
If you ask members of the Trump administration what they are doing, they will often revert to the slogan “Make America Great Again.” And that’s not just a meme—it’s a guiding vision for the administration’s entire approach to trade, finance, and economic power.
As Gillian Tett has observed on the marvellous Ezra Klein NYTimes podcast, the administration’s goal is not just economic growth but a complete reset of the global financial and trading system to ensure American supremacy for years to come. The U.S. is no longer operating under the assumption that free trade and market efficiency drive economic progress. Instead, the driving force is power—who has it, who doesn’t, and how the U.S. can use every possible tool to bolster its own strength at the expense of competitors.
This obviously has profound impacts for Governments but for corporate M&A strategies, the implications are potentially massive. The rules of the game aren’t just about financial performance anymore. Instead corporate strategies will be impacted by the US Government’s push for geopolitical power and economic nationalism. For today, I want to focus on just two implications: 1) the surge in domestic M&A as US companies look inward and, 2) the need for foreign buyers to move quickly into owning direct assets in the US
1. The Surge in Domestic M&A: US Companies Look Inward
For those aligned with the mercantilist-hegemonic mindset, this is the best of times—a moment when domestic US industry is being prioritized, protected, and strengthened. For companies that relied on global supply chains and expansion to drive growth, however, it may feel like the worst of times, as foreign M&A becomes riskier and more politically fraught.
One of the clearest manifestations of this shift is the sharp rise in interest in domestic M&A. At Eaton Square, we are seeing U.S. corporations and PE prioritizing acquisitions at home over expansion abroad. The Trump administration’s policies are explicitly favoring companies that invest within U.S. borders, whether through reshoring incentives, tax benefits, or direct government contracts in key industries like energy, technology, and defense and this will take capital away from overseas investments. This has made domestic acquisitions far more attractive than global expansion, which now comes with a host of trade risks, supply chain disruptions, and political uncertainty.
It’s not just about policy incentives—it’s also about survival. The pandemic exposed the vulnerability of offshore supply chains, and the mercantilist-hegemonic mindset has reinforced the idea that dependence on foreign production is a national security risk. US companies that once outsourced manufacturing to China, Vietnam, or Mexico are now buying up U.S. suppliers and manufacturers, not just to meet customer demand, but to align with a government that is making domestic self-sufficiency a priority.
Very importantly, we don’t think this trend will end with manufacturing and physical importing businesses. Imagine the implications for the IT services sector when services based tariffs are introduced to reduce the cost disadvantage US employers work within compared to cheaper service countries such as India, Philllipines and Eastern Europe?
For M&A, this is the best of times for companies that position themselves as “strategic national assets”—businesses that fit neatly into the administration’s vision of an America that is economically independent and globally dominant. These firms are seeing higher valuations and stronger investor interest, particularly in sectors where government backing is a factor. However, for companies that rely on foreign markets or supply chains for growth, it is the worst of times, as tariffs, export restrictions, and regulatory hurdles make international expansion more challenging than ever.
2. The Race for U.S. Market Access: Foreign Buyers Move Quickly
If American corporations are doubling down on domestic acquisitions, foreign corporations need to buy their way into the U.S. market and we at Eaton Square are already seeing an increase in enquiries from European and Asia Pacific Companies seeking acquisitions in the US. And to be blunt this needs to accelerate.
From a mercantilist-hegemonic perspective, the U.S. is no longer just a player in the global economy—it is attempting to dictate the rules of global trade itself. For companies in Europe and Asia Pacific, this shift raises alarm bells. The U.S. is becoming more protectionist, making it harder for foreign businesses to sell into the American market without incurring tariffs or regulatory barriers. If foreign companies want to keep their access to the US they are going to need to own domestic channels and presence to align with the Trump Administration’s direction.
This is creating a sense of urgency. Instead of relying on exports, foreign firms need to aggressively pursue U.S. acquisitions as a way to establish a permanent foothold in the market. We are seeing this especially in sectors like pharmaceuticals, financial services, and advanced manufacturing, where European firms are seeking to expand their U.S. presence before the regulatory climate becomes even more difficult. Similarly, companies in Japan and South Korea are acquiring U.S. assets to ensure access to American consumers in case trade policies become even more restrictive.
But this, too, is a double-edged sword. It is the best of times for foreign companies that act quickly, securing deals while the U.S. is still open for business. However, it is the worst of times for those that hesitate, as the competition for U.S. deals is already growing. While some foreign firms will succeed in acquiring U.S. companies, others will be blocked on national security grounds, regardless of the commercial logic of the deal.
A New Era of M&A Strategy
The mercantilist-hegemonic mindset is creating a world in which M&A is no longer just about growth and profitability—it is about power, security, and economic nationalism. For some companies, this is a golden age of domestic consolidation, where companies that align with the administration’s vision will thrive under a system that rewards national loyalty and self-sufficiency. For others, it is a moment of uncertainty, where trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny threaten to disrupt long-standing global expansion plans.
For dealmakers, this is both the best of times and the worst of times. Those who understand how politics and economics are now intertwined will be best positioned to capitalize on this historic shift. Domestic M&A will thrive, foreign acquisitions will be strategic, and the companies that move decisively will emerge stronger in a world where economic policy is being shaped not by markets alone, but by governments with a vision for dominance.
With offices across the US, Europe and Asia Pacific, Eaton Square has a front seat for the latest M&A trends and we are always happy to share our observations. Feel free to reach out.
